Week 3 Game Notes

Week 3 Game Notes

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (+2)

Houston

• Cam Akers will be one of the most popular running backs at just $4,700 without Joe Mixon or Dameon Pierce. I expect Akers to be the primary ball carrier with Dare Ogunbowale serving as the back-up and primary pass catching back.
• Houston’s passing game is lethal and any of their pass catchers are always viable. Nico Collins and Tank Dell look like the priorities though as Collins is the clear alpha in the group and Dell is only $5,200. He has gotten off to a very slow start this season, but the opportunities have been there and he should perform better going forward.
  • Dell is second amongst Houston pass catchers in expected fantasy points (using Fantasy Points data) so far this season despite his disappointing performances. He has also ran routes on 81 percent of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks through the first two games.

Minnesota

• Sam Darnold is in the top 10 in fantasy points per dropback through the first two weeks of the season and could be in a shootout this week- or as much of a shootout as we get in 2024. He is still inexpensive at $5,500 and can be stacked with arguably the best WR in the league. At only about 6% projected ownership, Darnold looks like he is going overlooked in GPPs.
• Justin Jefferson also looks like a strong GPP play at just 7% projected ownership. Jefferson left last week’s game early but appears to be fine for this week. He has a 26% target share through the first two games and will once again be playing without Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson. This will make it easier for Houston to key in on him, but it also means that if he can find ways to get open he has very little competition for targets and his ceiling is massive.
• Aaron Jones is a decent mid-range RB option at $5,900. Ty Chandler cut into his rushing workload last week with Jones going from a 54% rushing share in week 1 to only 37.5% last week. His route participation climbed from 35% to 47%, however, and his target share rose from 8% to 23%. Chandler is likely to be more involved than we would like, but Jones should still have plenty of opportunities.
• Jalen Nailor stepped up with Addison sidelined last week, running routes on 81% of dropbacks and earning a 15% target share. Keep in mind that Jefferson left the game early so that probably influenced his involvement a bit, but he looks like an interesting GPP value regardless- especially in lineups with Darnold.
  • Nailor also ranks fifth in separation score (Fantasy Points data suite) among all WRs who have run at least 20 routes this season.
• Johnny Mundt continued to play a bigger role in the passing game than Josh Oliver in Week 2. Mundt has now run routes on 62 and 66% of Darnold’s dropbacks with a 13% and 8% target share. He isn’t safe or exciting, but he is firmly in the mix of cheap tight end punts that we can use to pay up at positions with better players.

Top Plays: Cam Akers, Tank Dell, Nico Collins

Secondary Plays: Justin Jefferson, Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, C.J. Stroud, Jalen Nailor, Johnny Mundt

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)

New York

• There isn’t much to be excited about here with the exception of Malik Nabers. Nabers is coming off a monster game against Washington and he remains reasonably priced at $6,400. The matchup isn’t as favorable as last week- few matchups are- but we can expect Nabers to dominate opportunities in this offense.
  • He has run routes on 94% of dropbacks with a 36% target share through the first two games
• Devin Singletary handled 73% of the Giants’ rushing workload in week two, which was the first game where we saw what his opportunities could look like in a neutral game script. He is going to be the clear RB1 in this offense, but this doesn’t look like a very appealing spot to target him as a touchdown underdog on the road.

Cleveland

• The Browns DST and Elijah Moore are projected for the most ownership here, which is probably correct given the favorable matchup against Daniel Jones and Moore’s role through the first two games.
  • 93% route participation with target shares of 11% and 24%.
• The rest of Cleveland seems interesting to me in GPPs. They are going to be low-owned because of uncertainty around running back roles and uncertainty around Deshaun Watson’s ability to play QB, but there is definitely upside here.
• Jerome Ford went from a 63% rushing share in week 1 to 24% in week 2 with D’onta Foreman getting the bulk of the carries after not being involved at all in week 1. I don’t know how this backfield will shake out but Foreman is only $4,400 so there is obvious upside if he ends up being the lead back. Similarly, if last week was a fluke, Ford has a ceiling at $5,800 as a touchdown favorite at home. Neither running back is going to get any ownership because of the uncertainty.

Top Plays: Malik Nabers, Browns DST

Secondary Plays: Elijah Moore

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1)

Chicago

• A little surprised that the Bears aren’t getting any love playing in a dome with a 22 point team total at cheap price tags. Keenan Allen remains out which opens up more opportunities for all of Chicago’s pass catchers as well.
  • That said, they aren’t showing up much for me at the moment either.
  • DeForest Buckner is out for the Colts which is a big hit for their defense.
• DJ Moore is the exception as he is projected for double-digit ownership at $6,700. Moore has dominated targets each of the first two games with a 28% target share week 1 and a 27% target share week 2.
• Cole Kmet was much more involved week two than he was week one. Kmet ran routes on 48% of dropbacks in week two after only running a route on 27% of dropbacks in the first game.
• DeAndre Carter stepped into Keenan Allen’s role as the primary slot receiver, running routes on 71% of dropbacks.
  • I don’t really think this is actionable on a 12-game slate so just pointing out it is what happened.
• My brain likes the Bears in tournaments here but my actual process doesn’t appear to (at least as of Saturday night).

Indianapolis

• No priorities stand out from the Colts.
  • Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman and Anthony Richardson always have GPP-winning upside, but they all look like secondary plays in this spot. There is also some reason to be concerned about Jonathan Taylor’s role in the passing game going forward as he only ran routes on 22% of dropbacks last week compared to 71% in week 1.

Top Plays: DJ Moore

Secondary Plays: Jonathan Taylor, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Michael Pittman

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Green Bay

• Still don’t know who is playing QB for Green Bay. I won’t have much interest either way, but the offense obviously will look better if Jordan Love is active (and the Titans defense will look somewhat worse)
• Josh Jacobs should be heavily involved again. He is likely to have efficiency issues but no shortage of opportunities.

Tennessee

• Tony Pollard looks like a strong play at $6,000 as a home favorite and he will look even better if Tyjae Spears misses the game. Pollard has handled 60-62% of the Titans’ rushes in each of the first two games. He also saw his route participation increase from 37% in week 1 to 54% in week 2 so he should see a nice role in the passing game if Spears is out as well.
• Calvin Ridley is difficult to prioritize with Will Levis as his QB, but he has been the only WR consistently earning targets through the first two games.

Top Plays: Tony Pollard, Titans DST

Secondary Plays: Josh Jacobs

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Los Angeles

• K. Dobbins got the start ahead of Gus Edwards last week and put up another big fantasy performance. His salary jumped to $6,400, however, and his team is a road underdog with one of the lowest team totals on the slate so I don’t plan on getting to him here.
• Quentin Johnson has run routes on 82% of dropbacks each of the first two games and caught two touchdowns last week. Still doesn’t look like a strong option in this game and neither do any of his teammates.
• Justin Herbert is questionable and if he is out this offense obviously looks much worse than it already does.

Pittsburgh

• George Pickens continues to be intriguing at about 2% ownership and a $5,700 salary. He has a high ceiling as the clear number 1 option in this offense, the problem is just that his median projection is relatively low since they aren’t likely to throw a ton and Justin Fields is his QB.
  • 26% target share but only 12.7 expected fantasy points per game through the first two.
• Justin Fields is always viable in GPPs at low ownership and a cheap ($5,400) price tag thanks to his rushing upside.
  • 34% and 22% rushing share through the first two weeks for Fields.

Top Plays: None

Secondary Plays: George Pickens, Justin Fields

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Denver

• Javonte Williams’ rushing share increased from 32% in week 1 to 58% in week 2.
  • This doesn’t do us much good since the Broncos’ offense is horrible and they are a touchdown underdog on the road.
  • Williams has run into 8+ men in the box on about 73% of his carries this season, the highest mark by a wide margin

Tampa Bay

• TB DST projects for a ton of ownership at $3,000. Chalk defenses are always scary since the position is so volatile, but it’s a great spot against Bo Nix.
• Chris Godwin is up to a 65% slot rate on his route run, which is a positive for him historically. He leads Tampa so far this season with 13.2 expected fantasy points per game.
• While Godwin is generally easier to trust, Mike Evans leads all WRs in separation score (Fantasy Points data suite) by a wide margin this season and offers multi-TD upside every time he takes the field.
• Bucky Irving handled about 30% of Tampa Bay’s carries in each of the first two games. Rachaad White is a viable mid-range play here, but I am a little concerned that if it is a positive game script for the Bucs where they don’t need White to work as a pass catcher we could see more Irving than we have the first couple of weeks.

Top Plays: Bucs DST, Chris Godwin

Secondary Plays: Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Baker Mayfield

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

Philadelphia

• 33% target share for Devonta Smith last week without A.J. Brown. Should be in line for a huge workload again this week, in a dome, against a team that has scored at will this season.
• More potential targets for Dallas Goedert as well without Brown. $4,600 is a reasonable price tag at a very weak position.
• Saquon Barkley is more of a luxury than a necessity at $7,700 but his 20.54 expected fantasy points per game are the third most at RB entering this week. He makes a lot of sense in lineups that don’t have Devonta Smith in large field tournaments since the Eagles are likely to put up points in this game and Barkley is the most obvious way that they do that that doesn’t involve Smith.
• Jalen Hurts offers elite upside as always thanks to his work around the goal line and his overall rushing upside. He has between a 30 and 35% rushing share in each of Philadelphia’s first two games.

Saints

• Offense has been unstoppable through the first two games. It is impossible that they maintain this rate, but there are plenty of reasons to buy into Klint Kubiak’s offense overall.
• Alvin Kamara projects to be about 25% owned after last week’s monster performance. He is one of the top running backs on the slate thanks to his pass catching role and goal line role. Taysom Hill is also doubtful which should be a slight bump to Kamara. He has a 19 and 21% target share through the first two games so we can still count on him getting his share of targets even though the offense is actually capable of moving the ball downfield now.
• Rashid Shaheed is thriving so far in this new offense and he earned 21 and 25% of targets in the first two weeks. His $5,300 salary has not adjusted enough to his role in this offense.
• Don’t sleep on Chris Olave just because he hasn’t had a big game yet. Those games are going to come in this offense. He had a 38% target share last week and should be the number one option in most games. Olave is going to be popular and for good reason at only $6,300.
• Derek Carr is only $5,800 so he is a strong value play at QB as well, though his lack of rushing upside hurts a bit.
• Foster Moreau is an interesting tight end punt at just $2,600. He ran routes on 31% of dropbacks in week 1 and 41% of dropbacks in week 2 (though he didn’t draw a target). Juwan Johnson ran routes on 42% of dropbacks in week 1 but only 18% in week 2. Taysom Hill’s assumed absence should open up some additional opportunities for at least one of Moreau or Johnson and I prefer Moreau at the cheaper price tag.

Top Plays: Alvin Kamara, Devonta Smith, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed

Secondary Plays: Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert, Saquon Barkley, Foster Moreau, Derek Carr

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)

Carolina

• Diontae Johnson should benefit from Andy Dalton getting the start over Bryce Young- at the very least it won’t make him worse. It feels bad clicking on a relatively popular player from the Panthers, but Johnson is only $4,900.
  • It is worth noting that Johnson has seemingly played horribly so far this season. He has a negative separation score and his 8% win rate on his routes is outside the top 100 pass catchers. At this point, I think it is fair to attribute anything bad with the Panthers to Bryce Young but it will be something to keep an eye on.

Raiders

• Brock Bowers is an absolute stud and he is still only $5,400 at tight end. Bowers’ 24% target share is second to Davante Adams (25%) through the first two games.
• Davante Adams isn’t projected for much ownership but he looks like an interesting target in tournaments. The Raiders may end up running at a higher rate in this game than they have in their first two since they are likely to be ahead, but that doesn’t mean Adams can’t be the reason that they have a lead.
• Zamir White is projected for about 11% ownership at $5,500 and it is warranted. White has lost some snaps to Alexander Mattison this season, but it has primarily been on passing downs. White handled 59% of the team’s carries in week 1 and 53% in week 2. He should get a heavy workload in this one if the Raiders are able to play from ahead.

Top Plays: Brock Bowers, Zamir White

Secondary Plays: Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)

Miami

• Skylar Thompson will be starting in place of Tua Tagovailoa, which effectively kills my interest in the Dolphins’ passing game.
• De’von Achane, on the other hand, remains a strong play at $7,000 as the Dolphins are likely to try and get the ball into his hands as much as possible given their QB situation.
  • Raheem Mostert is doubtful this week after missing last week. In his absence in week 2, Achane saw his rush share jump from 40% in week 1 to 64.7%. Achane has also been involved as a pass catcher this season with a 19% target share in week 1 and an 18% target share in week 2.

Seattle Seahawks

• Zach Charbonnet was the clear number 1 back without Kenneth Walker last week. He handled 73.7 percent of the team’s carries and ran routes on 63% of dropbacks (11% target share). He typically isn’t very involved in the passing game, so he is relatively risky, but he is still affordable at only $6,000 in a game that the Seahawks are likely to be leading.
• Seattle was one of the most pass-heavy offenses last week without Walker. The field is looking to roster Charbonnet at a high rate, which is fine, but one way to counter them could be to go back to Seattle’s passing game.
  • DK Metcalf (14%), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (9%) and Geno Smith (10%) are all affordable. They are getting some ownership, but considerably less than Charbonnet at 25%.

Top Plays: Zach Charbonnet, De’Von Achane, DK Metcalf

Secondary Plays: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Geno Smith

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+6.5)

San Francisco 49ers

• Deebo Samuel and George Kittle join Christian McCaffrey on the sideline. This opens the door for Brandon Aiyuk to be heavily involved at $6,200. Jordan Mason handled 73.7% of carries in week 1 and then saw an increased workload with 80% of carries last week.
  • The argument against Aiyuk and Mason is that it is very possible the Niners’ offense struggles to be efficient without Samuel, Kittle and McCaffrey. Aiyuk and Mason should have plenty of opportunities, but the defense has a lot less to worry about than they normally do.
  • Mason isn’t involved as a pass catcher, so it is relatively easy for him to fail. If he doesn’t score a touchdown, it will be difficult for him to be someone that you have to have.
• Jauan Jennings and Eric Saubert are getting some ownership as well as cheap value plays. They should both see increased opportunities, but it is difficult to have a lot of confidence in either of them.

Los Angeles Rams

• Cooper Kupp joins Puka Nacua on the sidelines so this is a banged up team as well. They also have multiple offensive line injuries.
• Kyren Williams looks like the most appealing play from the Rams, though he is still only a secondary option at $7,100. Williams had a 19% target share last week so we could see an increased role in the passing game going forward without Kupp or Nacua.
• More opportunities should be available for Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, Colby Parkinson and Jordan Whittington but none of them stand out as more than cheap GPP fliers. Parkinson ran routes on 75% of dropbacks last week. While that number is lower than his 84% route participation week 1, it is still a healthy number and its good to see since the Rams are without multiple linemen and there was some chance that they would keep Parkinson in to block a lot more last game.

Top Plays: Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Mason

Secondary Plays: Kyren Williams, Jauan Jennings, Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Eric Saubert

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (+1)

Baltimore

• We saw a heavy pass rate from the Ravens in week 1 in a game where they were on the road against a very good Chiefs offense. There is a decent chance that this game shoots out and we see the ball in Lamar Jackson’s hands a lot in this one as well.
• Zay Flowers is the clear top pass catcher with a 24 and 29% target share in the first two games. Flowers’ 23.45 expected fantasy points per game is second amongst wide receivers and tight ends this season, sandwiched between Cooper Kupp and Malik Nabers. Flowers isn’t getting much ownership at 3-4% but I think he should be at least double that.
• Mark Andrews ran more routes than Isaiah Likely again in week 2 and the Ravens used 12 personnel less so there were a lot less routes available for Likely despite a huge week 1. $4,800 is a pretty cheap price tag to try and get an Andrews breakout game.
• Derrick Henry handled about 67% of carries last week compared to 41% week 1. He is going to be gameflow dependent all season as we will see Justice Hill when the Ravens are behind or in a two-minute drill and Henry around the goal line and when the Ravens are ahead. This is a risky spot but the upside is there in GPPs at just 5% ownership.

Dallas

• Jake Ferguson missed last week but he will play this week. He should be one of the most popular tight ends at just $4,500.
• CeeDee Lamb is another stud WR that looks to be going a bit underowned in GPPs at only about 8% ownership. Lamb only had a 17% target share last week, but we obviously can expect him to draw a higher percentage of targets in most games going forward.

Top Plays: Jake Ferguson

Secondary Plays: CeeDee Lamb, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+3)

Detroit

• Amon-Ra St. Brown got banged up last week but should be good to go against Arizona. He had a 32% target share last week after taking a backseat to Jameson Williams week 1.
• Jameson Williams is off to a great start and he is still affordable at $5,800. He ranks 6^th in separation score for all WRs who have run at least 20 routes so far this season.
• Jahmyr Gibbs looks good in a game that is likely to be high scoring. It is unlikely that the Lions build a big enough lead that they are running clock, so we should see plenty of Gibbs as a pass catching back.

Arizona

• Marvin Harrison Jr. broke out last week with a huge game against the Rams. He is relatively expensive again this week so his ownership will be low. He is an interesting GPP play since we are overpaying for his median projection but not his ceiling. This game has one of the highest totals on the slate and he is only projected for about 4% ownership.
  • It is also interesting that through the first two games of the season, Detroit’s defensive looks have been more similar to the Rams’ than the Bills’ (the matchup that Harrison didn’t produce in week one).
    • Detroit has used 2-high looks at the fourth lowest frequency in the NFL this season (Rams are also bottom 10 while Bills are top 5). This could allow Harrison to get open deep behind the defense.
  • Trey McBride is always one of the highest upside tight ends. I don’t love paying up for him because it is a position that I typically want to save money (or play Brock Bowers for less) but McBride has a massive 29% target share in each of the first two games.

Top Plays: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Trey McBride, Jahmyr Gibbs

Secondary Plays: Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner, Sam LaPorta, Kyler Murray